I think that the bullish divergence on the pair on weekly TF is still valid, so eventually the direction is upwards, creating wave 3 from 111 level. But a lot depends on the yen, which turned to be very risky lately.
LUCK
It's turned around completely from last week. Price now below the kijun sen and tenkan sen. Chikou span below price.
Price is getting close to the daily kumo now, so we'll see what that brings. Will it turn round and go up, or bounce off the kumo and go up. Or even break through the kumo?
I agree that eventually, we'll have an opportunity to go long. Looks like it might take a while though....
Sometimes it's not a bad habit to leave al these noisy charts and look just on pure supply and demand over a larger time span.
I find Point and Figure a nice tool to reveal what's going on.
So, here's a PnF chart of the pair. Each box (greens are buy, reds are sell) worth 50 pips and to have a reversal in direction (=creating a new colomn of either "x"s or "0"s) you need to gain 3 boxes on the countertrend, meaning 150 pips for reversal.
That's quite a massive ship to steer, no wonder it looks very much like weekly bar chart.
The first feature that pops to my eyes is the 1000 pips depth (and hence the target too) Head And Shoulders pattern waiting for full construction of the right shoulder, which is 500 pips wide.
Personally I don't trade 50x3 box charts; they look innocent but they can ruin your account in matter of hours, as all Yen pairs can. For trading I use faster charts like 5x3 boxes.
The advantage of 50x3 charts is their simplicity and brightness, plus the lack of noise of intraday movements. While typing this massage the pair sold 35 pips in matter of moments, but that movement feels like a mosquitoe on elephant's skin.
So, this chart by no means transmits long sometimes in the future, but not today, anyhow.
LUCK
