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[iam802]

Hi,

I have been using Ichimoku for about half a year.

It will be great if I can have feedback on my readings so that I can understand some of the mistakes.

Here I am posting a review of S&P500 ending 26 March 2009.

----
Yesterday’s continuation of S&P 500 rally has seen it reach a very important milestone.

On the chart, it has pierce through 828, but not with strong volume.

The missing volume is a critical factor as this is a level that has been tested 3 times this year before it finally break down.

Just as it is difficult to break down, I believe it  will be also face difficulties breaking through convincingly.

More importantly, we can see that S&P has now ’slammed’ into the wall of kumo.
--




I look forward to any comments and hope to learn from everyone.

[paulbooma]

Hi iam208

Our daily charts are different I think due to being calculated on different prices. Mine is a market maker.

For price to enter kumo it needs T/S which is still at 792. It will wait for it to come to it or price might come down to entice it up.

Some where on this forum ( I think it was Ian ) it mentions to watch for significant R&S. The price is interacting with R&S from 2003 and 1997.

Interesting to see a flat top forward kumo at 803.

On volume, I don't follow it at all.

Some charts to show what I have said. Interesting that I was not happy with my SP500 charts and felt they were out of whack with the instrument.

paul

[sunman4008]

Hello

Sorry for the late response.

On the first chart, price is far way from the tenkan/kijun Sen.  Also, the kijun/tenkan are way below the kumo cloud.   Therefore, it is a bullish PULLBACK.

-Manesh

[PilotTrader]

Manesh and forum readers -

I'm brand new to this excellent site and Ichomoku analysis, but I'm already seeing the merits of using this unique system throughout a variety of markets.  As a technical analyst at an independent research firm I'm well versed in traditional TA, but recently stumbled upon Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (and very glad I did).  I've read through the wiki site and Nicole Elliott's book (was lacking in my opinion), but still consider myself a beginner in the subject.  In relation to this thread's topic, the S&P 500, would anybody mind answering a couple questions concerning the daily chart below?

1. The Kumo cloud is extremely thin in mid/late August.  Does this suggest a higher probability of a trend change?
2. It appears that the Tenkan is ready to signal a buy by crossing above the Kijun line.  Given the overhead resistance by the thick Kumo cloud on the WEEKLY chart, would less weight be given to the DAILY buy signal?


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=1&id=p99630771229&a=173505514

Thanks

[zolchew]

1. As I know, that means weaker support. If price action turns bearish above it, there'll be a higher probability of continuing fall. Look for the position of the probable tenkan sen & kijun sen cross.
2. I don't know much about how ichimoku clouds work with weekly charts, but the cross occured in the cloud (in the daily chart), so it's considered neutral.

[trustthetape]

I was doing some work with the S&P 500 over the weekend - using tradestation so scan each component to determine whether the component was bullish (above the cloud), neutral (in the cloud) or bearish (below the cloud).  Probably too much data to post each component here but the summary is as follows:

      Weekly   Daily
Bull      179           435
Neutral  184   36
Bear      132           29

This was a fairly simplistic study (price above cloud at the current bar, or not).  It would be reasonable (and relatively easy) to take this to the next level and look at whether other ichimoku indicators are also in bull/neutral/bear mode (e.g., is chikou span above price action and/or the cloud, is the current kumo "bullish", how "deep" is the kumo, etc).

[sunman4008]

Hello,

Be careful how you do this.   The counting is good but remember not all stocks in the SP500 are 100% correlated to the SP500.   Each stock has a beta value.  If you check the beta value and it is close to 1 then you have a good correlation to the SP500.   

One way to do it is to take all the beta related stocks close to beta=1 and then count ....that can be a good oscillator indicator for you.

-Manesh

[trustthetape]

At this point, not trying to find stocks that correlate to the S&P but rather identify how the components of the S&P "look" wrt Ichimoku in various timeframes.  For simplicity, here's the Dow 30 components wrt Ichimoku in various timeframes (monthly, weekly, daily):

$INDU      Bear   Neutral   Strong Bull
BA   Aerospace & Defense   Bear   Neutral   Strong Bull
KO   Beverages (Nonalcoholic)   Bull   New Bull   New Strong Bull
DIS   Broadcasting & Cable TV   Neutral   Bull   Strong Bull
DD   Chemical Manufacturing   Strong Bear   Neutral   Strong Bull
VZ   Communications Services   Strong Bear   Neutral   New Strong Bull
T   Communications Services   Bear   Strong Bear   Strong Bull
HPQ   Computer Hardware   Strong Bull   Bull   Strong Bull
CSCO   Computer Peripherals   Neutral   Bull   Strong Bull
IBM   Computer Services   Bull   Bull   Strong Bull
MMM   Conglomerates   Bear   Bull   Strong Bull
GE   Conglomerates   Strong Bear   Strong Bear   Strong Bull
CAT   Constr. & Agric. Machinery   Bear   Neutral   Strong Bull
AXP   Consumer Financial Services   Strong Bear   Bull   Strong Bull
KFT   Food Processing      New Bull   New Bear
TRV   Insurance (Prop. & Casualty)   New Bull   Bull   Strong Bull
JPM   Investment Services   Neutral   Strong Bull   Strong Bull
JNJ   Major Drugs   Neutral   New Bull   Strong Bull
PFE   Major Drugs   Strong Bear   Neutral   Strong Bull
MRK   Major Drugs   Strong Bear   Neutral   Strong Bull
AA   Metal Mining   Strong Bear   Strong Bear   Strong Bull
UTX   Misc. Capital Goods   Neutral   Bull   Strong Bull
BAC   Money Center Banks   Strong Bear   Neutral   Strong Bull
CVX   Oil & Gas - Integrated   Neutral   Strong Bear   Strong Bull
XOM   Oil & Gas Operations   Neutral   Strong Bear   New Bull
PG   Personal & Household Prods.   Neutral   Strong Bear   Neutral
MCD   Restaurants   Strong Bull   Bear   Strong Bear
WMT   Retail (Department & Discount)   Neutral   Bear   Strong Bull
HD   Retail (Home Improvement)   Strong Bear   Bull   Strong Bull
INTC   Semiconductors   Strong Bear   Bull   Strong Bull
MSFT   Software & Programming   Strong Bear   Bull   Strong Bull
   ~Results and data as of: 09/08/2009 at 08:15:18 pm

For this brief study:

Bull is defined as price above "current" kumo (kumo at the same bar as price); Bear means below; Neutral means price in Kumo

Strong bull is defined as CS above "prior" kumo (kumo at the same bar as CS), price above "current" kumo and "future" kumo span A>span B

New means condition was met in most recent closed period (day, week, month). 

Not sure where I'm going with this yet but learning tradestation and gaining Ichi insight at the same time.

Probably start playing around with "cloud thickness" and "distance" from cloud next.  Gotta be some meaning there.

Questions: Of the 30 components of the Dow, which is "most bullish" on a daily/weekly/monthly perspective wrt Ichimoku?  Shouldn't we be able to determine that and "rank" the components with respect to their Ichimoku strength?

[sunman4008]

Hello,

yes we can.  In fact, I am looking at creating and releasing a Ichimoku dashboard very soon on the website.  I am waiting for the website to get to a certain level before releasing it.

-Manesh

[traderus]

Hello,

yes we can.  In fact, I am looking at creating and releasing a Ichimoku dashboard very soon on the website.  I am waiting for the website to get to a certain level before releasing it.

-Manesh

Hi. What is Ichimoku dashboard?
Thanks.

[sunman4008]

Hello,

It is in draft right now but it is a rating system.   It will help to find trades on different timeframes.   


-Manesh